THERMODYNAMIC MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND EARTH SYSTEMS

Abstract

Background: Climate change is fundamentally a thermodynamic phenomenon, driven by imbalances in the Earth’s energy budget and amplified by feedback processes within the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, and biosphere. Understanding climate dynamics from a thermodynamic perspective enables the identification of irreversible changes, entropy production trends, and limits to system resilience.

Objective: This study develops and applies a thermodynamic modeling framework to analyze climate change and Earth system dynamics, focusing on the interplay between radiative energy transfer, atmospheric composition changes, and feedback-driven entropy production. The aim is to provide a physically consistent basis for projecting long-term climate trajectories under various greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

Methods: Using the first and second laws of thermodynamics as foundational principles, an enhanced Earth energy balance model (EBM) was formulated to account for incoming solar radiation, albedo variability, greenhouse gas radiative forcing, and ocean heat uptake. Empirical datasets from satellite radiative flux measurements, atmospheric CO₂ concentration records, and global temperature anomalies were incorporated for model calibration. Numerical simulations were conducted across Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios to evaluate the thermodynamic evolution of the climate system.

Results: Model simulations indicate a persistent positive radiative imbalance of 0.8–1.2 W/m² over recent decades, corresponding to continuous ocean heat uptake and rising entropy production in the climate system. Under high-emission scenarios, global mean surface temperature anomalies exceed 4 °C by 2100, with accelerated cryosphere melting and reduced planetary albedo. Entropy analysis reveals that anthropogenic forcing has shifted the climate system toward higher irreversibility, reducing its capacity for natural recovery without significant intervention.

Conclusion: Thermodynamic analysis provides a robust, physically grounded framework for understanding and predicting climate change. By linking energy balance disruptions with irreversible system changes, this approach complements traditional climate models and offers valuable insights for mitigation and adaptation strategies. Integrating thermodynamic constraints into Earth system modeling enhances the scientific basis for policy-making in the face of accelerating climate risks.